I Was Wrong: Alabama Senate Special Election Edition

Tonight I made a not-so-bold prediction that all of the machinations in Alabama would amount to nothing as another Republican would win a Statewide race there. It was an easier narrative than talking about shifts and swings. It would have pushed us to have conversations about whether or not shaming Republicans in to taking a stand against sexual predators was worth it. Instead now we need to understand that a Democratic message actually carried the day in the bible belt. This race was largely a referendum on Roy Moore's fitness to serve in public office, but most of the Republican messaging in the final days tried to focus on Doug Jones' policy positions hoping they would be anathema to voters. 

I will not try to encapsulate this in to any one sound bite. Elections are complicated things, reading all of the signs and trying to understand how 1.3 million people will make up their minds between two choices. I read those signals incorrectly, call it cynicism or lack of on the ground knowledge or lack of imagination, I read it wrong. I believed that Democrats did not have the ground game, voters would regress against the race being nationalized. I thought there was no way all of the factors could fall in to place. I probably underestimated the power of the moment we are in. 

The sharp reactions to the revelations of sexual misconduct (a euphemism we cannot seem to escape) make it clear we are in a sea change in this country. It is not just that powerful men are losing their jobs, it is that a permission structure is being created for sexual misconduct, sexual assault, and rape to be discussed in a public way. It empowers people to stand up and speak out. It is creating a world where consequences are real enough to change behavior. No longer do powerful people feel they are immune from those consequences. 

The Weinstein moment is not the only factor, there is clearly a shift in the electorate because of the approval rating of President Trump. While he was not necessarily the main focus of the campaign, it is hard to escape his influence anyone in this country. This could not be a referendum on Trump, but it shows the temperature of the country.

There will be far more expansive opportunities to dissect this vote. Tonight it would appear I need to visit Alabama, and do more research on polling.