I Was Wrong: Alabama Senate Special Election Edition

Tonight I made a not-so-bold prediction that all of the machinations in Alabama would amount to nothing as another Republican would win a Statewide race there. It was an easier narrative than talking about shifts and swings. It would have pushed us to have conversations about whether or not shaming Republicans in to taking a stand against sexual predators was worth it. Instead now we need to understand that a Democratic message actually carried the day in the bible belt. This race was largely a referendum on Roy Moore's fitness to serve in public office, but most of the Republican messaging in the final days tried to focus on Doug Jones' policy positions hoping they would be anathema to voters. 

I will not try to encapsulate this in to any one sound bite. Elections are complicated things, reading all of the signs and trying to understand how 1.3 million people will make up their minds between two choices. I read those signals incorrectly, call it cynicism or lack of on the ground knowledge or lack of imagination, I read it wrong. I believed that Democrats did not have the ground game, voters would regress against the race being nationalized. I thought there was no way all of the factors could fall in to place. I probably underestimated the power of the moment we are in. 

The sharp reactions to the revelations of sexual misconduct (a euphemism we cannot seem to escape) make it clear we are in a sea change in this country. It is not just that powerful men are losing their jobs, it is that a permission structure is being created for sexual misconduct, sexual assault, and rape to be discussed in a public way. It empowers people to stand up and speak out. It is creating a world where consequences are real enough to change behavior. No longer do powerful people feel they are immune from those consequences. 

The Weinstein moment is not the only factor, there is clearly a shift in the electorate because of the approval rating of President Trump. While he was not necessarily the main focus of the campaign, it is hard to escape his influence anyone in this country. This could not be a referendum on Trump, but it shows the temperature of the country.

There will be far more expansive opportunities to dissect this vote. Tonight it would appear I need to visit Alabama, and do more research on polling. 

Pre-Knee Jerk Reactions to the Alabama Senate Special Election

All day I have been reviewing the polls and the pundits on the Alabama Senate Special Election. I have looked at them with a primarily analytical lens, which kept back sliding towards strategy and wishful thinking.

The hard truths here are that Alabama is a place where the Republican Party can put up Putin or Ba'ath party type numbers on the Democrats. That’s not an indictment of Alabama on principle, the numbers in a place like San Francisco aren't exactly nail biters. For Reference the last time Nancy Pelosi (D - CA) received less than 80% of the vote in a general election it was 1990 and 77.2% would not have been thought to be squeaking by either. 

Doug Jones had a harder road to the election than the average Democrat. He was trying to reach a population that was not necessarily receptive to his message. There are many Democratic constituencies in the state, though. If those places turn out in fine form, and the Republicans stay home or vote for Nick Saban, then the race will be close. It is impossible to tell ahead of time how close this race will be. While some may dismiss polling altogether, the adept minds in the polling industry have been noting that, the polling is strongly showing there isn't a way to know. 

Polling, really all data analysis, is riddled with something called "noise." Variables that can create a problem in understanding what the numbers are actually trying to tell you. That would be referred to as the "signal." If the signal cannot be found in the numbers then the experts would agree with the casual observer that they are junk.

For a poll to be accurate, and make sense, the numbers need to be scaled properly. This prevents less populated areas or groups which are known to vote a certain way from over loading the averages. Ideally a poll consists of a demographic that matches the electoral demographic on a 1:1 ratio. This is almost never possible. To compensate, the responses of each person will be weighted to accurately reflect demographics, location, race, party ID, likely voter screen, ect. The polls have broken along methodology lines and along turnout model lines. 

Those who have had live interviews have had Jones ahead, triggering a shy voter effect conversation. Those that have polled cell phones have been kinder to the Democrat as well, signaling a possibly hidden youth vote. One poll was released with three different turn out models to signify just how little people currently understand the electorate in Alabama. 

And how could they? Alabama special elections are very rare, so there are not an abundance of guides on which to form a competent model.

Elections there are, also, usually not close. One of the closest was in 2012 when Roy Moore ran for Chief Justice and won by 4 points. His opponent, Robert S. Vance, got so close based on big turn out, and somehow out performed Barrack Obama by 10 points.

So tonight Democrats will probably watch a candidate that they have hyped lose. It will be a replay of Georgia 6th and Montana at large. People should remember that this wasn't supposed to be close. The main takeaway from this should be that the Republican Party decided to back a child molester, and threatened to change the dynamic of national politics. Each race has been an indicator of positive things for the Democratic Party, but they will not all be as much fun as the Virginia Statewide elections. The pendulum is swinging, even in Alabama. It just has further to travel. Of course I could say these glum words and then be proven wrong in a half hour. That’s been known to happen as well. 

Knee Jerk Reaction: Senate Tax Bill

This is actually a next morning 1 Turkish coffee in the bag reaction. Earlier this morning the Senate passed their version of the Tax bill at 1:50 AM ET. I had held out hope that maybe I would stay up and see another dramatic moment like Senator John McCain (R-AZ) live up to his principles and kill a major piece of legislation that was generated in a back room and would hurt real people. 

RT if you think we shouldn't re-write America's tax code in the middle of the night with...this. pic.twitter.com/iKuwh6ny4L

— Senator Chris Coons (@ChrisCoons) December 2, 2017

Despite the lack of regular order, Senator McCain was a reliable yes vote since Thursday. 

UPDATE: Republicans rejected our motion to adjourn until Monday so senators could read the bill they just introduced.

RT If you think senators should have time to read a bill that affects every single American.

— Sen Dianne Feinstein (@SenFeinstein) December 2, 2017

Marco Rubio (R-FL) for a long time was a no vote, or if your whip count score card was honest he was a "wants something." What he wanted was an expanded Child Tax Credit. He didn't get it, but he did manage to pass something that allows people to deduct the price of private K-12 education. Not exactly a hero of the worker type move. 

So many deficit hawks had their chance to prove their loyalty to their brand and vote against a bill that will add at least 1 Trillion dollars ($1,000,000,000,000.00) to the national deficit. Instead they invited doubt about whether or not they understood how deficits worked, or when it was appropriate to do deficit spending, like during a recession. Most importantly they sowed doubt that what they really disliked was that a black man added to the deficit, all but one were not black, so they were allowed to add as much to the deficit as they wanted. 

The only Republican that held true to their talking point was Senator Bob Corker (R-TN), he was the sole defector from the Republican side of the aisle leaving the vote 51-49. This is of course a simple virtue signaling move and not a genuine vote. Senator Corker holds a seat on a key committee, and during the markup process could have slowed the bill and demanded a hearing. He would have had the support of all of the Democrats and therefore it would have stalled out in the Budget Committee. It was known then that the bill would balloon the deficit, so if he was serious in his opposition he would have voiced it then. Instead he allowed the bill to be reported out where he knew his no vote would not matter. 

It was disappointing to see so many we had hoped to win over vote with the Majority. Those who could have fought back against the repeal of a key Obamacare provision (Murkoski, Collins, McCain), those who have been so outspoken about the need for regular order(McCain, McConnell(look back to his 2010 statements)), and those who were still causing havoc over the deficit up until yesterday (Johnson, Flake). Instead they chose to please their donors.

“My donors are basically saying: ‘Get it done or don’t ever call me again’” -Republican Rep. Chris Collins

“Donors are furious” -Republican Sen. Cory Gardner

"The financial contributions will stop" -Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham

No, #GOPTaxScam *won't* help the middle class.

— Nancy Pelosi (@TeamPelosi) December 1, 2017

It was an altogether major disappointment, the bill will now go to a conference committee where it will be reworked, again behind closed doors. The final bill will be brought before the House and Senate which will most likely approve of it, also lacking most procedural hurdles it could happen quite quickly. So it is most likely that this will be ready for President Trump's signature in less than two weeks.

Knee Jerk Reaction: Gen. Michael Flynn

We are past the drip drip phase of the Russia investigation. With the charge against a member of the administration we have reached a turning point as significant as the appointment of the special counsel. Today General Michael Flynn has been charged, and is expected to plead guilty, to one count of lying to the FBI. You know Flynn, this guy:

Now that the former National Security Advisor has been offered a deal, we can expect other names in the administration, past and present, to be implicated. Special Counsel Robert Mueller is not known for being light on people he sees as criminals, and to offer Flynn a plea deal he would have had to been willing to give up quite a bit of information on others further up the food chain. Being that he was a direct report to the President of the United States, the top of the food chain does not appear to be far away. 

To be both clear and fair, to say this is evidence of Trump committing a crime is far overreaching and irresponsible tea leaf reading. It is an indication that such things may have been happening though. Most federal prosecutors will not give a simple single charge to a cooperating witness when there is the wealth of evidence against Flynn out in the public realm. He was colluding with foreign governments to engage in extraordinary rendition with US residents. He was lying not only to the FBI but misrepresenting himself within the national security apparatus, that included the Vice President. 

While everything remains in the speculative realm it is hard to say who is right and who is in hysterics. But it is clear that the second round of indicitments from the Special Counsel's office is the investigation is proceeding forward. It has reached from the campaign, in to the administration. It has gone from advisors, to more concrete officials.

Even the Manafort indictment, though he held a prominent title, was more a way of leaning on him than showing wrongdoing of the campaign or administration. This is a new phase in the investigation. It is unclear how long it will last, or where it will end up. What is clear is that Robert Mueller feels empowered to act, is doing so, and it is starting to amount to actual jail time for actual people. 

That's it for now, back to this Tax bill. Which is evidently awful, and getting worse.