Review of Fire and Fury

The new book Fire and Fury by Michael Wolff has been released early due to the widespread interest and buzz surrounding the details that began to leak out. The final catalyst being the President’s lawyers sending a cease and desist letter to the publisher, Henry Holt, it was released 4 days early. The move was comment enough, but they followed it with a statement that said powerfully, “We will not allow any president to achieve by intimidation what our Constitution precludes him or her from achieving in court.”

            For all of the buzz that it generated the majority of the meat so to speak was included in the excerpt offered on New York Magazine’s website, available here. Any detail missed by that has since been taken up by the press with all the dignity of the tabloids President Trump once generated so much content for. From all of this we see a portrait of a president that is in over his head and not suited or qualified for the job at hand. Even more troubling, in a Krueger-Dunning effect case-in-point moment, Mr. Trump does not realize that he has these limitations. But the absolute worst revelation for me from the book is not these things which could have been inferred already, but the total awareness of those around him of his shortcomings. Previously one could have thought that everyone in the administration had a blind spot in realizing the President’s lack of aptitude, instead they are willfully suppressing the urge to do the right thing in favor of an attempt to enrich themselves.

            The book has come under serious attack from several angles. Foremost, it has been decried as simply impossible to get the quotes he got. A piece of reporting that had to be a work of fiction based on second, and third hand accounts. That is, of course, until he stated that the explosive conversation between Steve Bannon and Roger Ailes that grabbed many of the early headlines was in fact a dinner for 6 hosted by Mr. Wolff and attended by another journalist that corroborated the accounts. Then Mr. Wolff helpfully offered that he had hours of tapes from which the majority of the quotes in the book came. Next, the book was assailed for being over the top. Even if the quotes were right he was mischaracterizing the people in them. Other than minor clarifications and red-faced explanations, most of the people have not denied their portrayals directly, rather trying to discredit the entire work.

            Mr. Wolff’s greatest problem and where his book is by far most easily picked apart are the details. He gets wrong what department cabinet secretaries run, who was present at a breakfast that Ivanka Trump attended. Who was in which meeting when, and so on. There are many of these criticisms. While it could mean the book is indeed a work of fiction because details essential to fact checking turned out to be errors, to conclude this you would then need to ignore the body of reporting that has since backed up much of the book, along with the outside corroboration, of others present or the subjects themselves. Instead the explanation that I believe fits more comfortably is that Michael Wolff is a garbage journalist that practices in a garbage section of the field of journalism. He is a tabloid writer, not accustomed to some of the subjects whom he mentions, nor the scrutiny with which his work will be subjected. These errors are unforgiveable as far as the process that led to their inclusion, but not necessarily of the work as a whole. This would mean the majority of the book can still be correct even if someone’s name was Mark, instead of Mike.

            The question I believe is most central to this work would be: does this book have value? Both to the larger conversation of our politics and the 14 bucks and change I spent on it. Answering the latter first, I would say sure, I don’t hate that I dropped some cash on it. The prose is good, the story, for what it is, is compelling. One could hardly complain that you are getting a deeper longer view than a palace intrigue article that might appear in the New York Times or Axios.

            The broader question of value comes from palace intrigue style. If you believe that type of article has value then this should absolutely carry water with you. The two best sourced reporters on the White House beat would without question be Maggie Haberman at the New York Times, and Mike Allen at Axios. It is obvious that they have multiple people within the administration talking to them, and sometimes it is obvious that they want those sources to keep talking to them. If ever they get called in for criticism it is not for the work that they do, but for the next step they refuse to take. Mr. Wolff, by contrast, has no intention of holding on to his sources. He has been kicked out of the West Wing forever by Chief of Staff John Kelly and is free to print everything that he has. From this we can see a portrait of the President and his administration painted by someone whose only duty is, theoretically, to the reader. Being a tabloid star, Mr. Wolff, still must prove that his intentions are pure, or have a preponderance of probability. The work of Ms. Haberman and Mr. Allen make Mr. Wolff’s account likely even probable.

Beyond what it offers the blood thirsty it does do a decent job of going through the people that populate Trump world. Those who may not consume every scrap of news available might not recognize every name, and in the year that Trump has had in office it is often hard to remember when people have entered and exited frame.

            I feel uniquely targeted by this book because it does tell me my worst fears that previously had all come from inference and imagination, are, in fact, true. It is easy to digest that way. The sourcing problems could be as glaring as even the strongest critics say, but I have an inclination to believe already. No criticism could change that the major subject of the book, Mr. Trump’s unfitness for office, needs to be discussed now. Those protecting him, members of congress, members of the administration, even members of the media, must be called to account for the damage they are allowing him to do to the country and our government.

This book does not change policies, it does not change how one party or the other should construct their agenda. It could not change what is right and what is wrong. It does start a conversation about Presidential fitness. A worthy one that we must have now and then remember for every presidential election for the rest of our lives.

I Was Wrong: Alabama Senate Special Election Edition

Tonight I made a not-so-bold prediction that all of the machinations in Alabama would amount to nothing as another Republican would win a Statewide race there. It was an easier narrative than talking about shifts and swings. It would have pushed us to have conversations about whether or not shaming Republicans in to taking a stand against sexual predators was worth it. Instead now we need to understand that a Democratic message actually carried the day in the bible belt. This race was largely a referendum on Roy Moore's fitness to serve in public office, but most of the Republican messaging in the final days tried to focus on Doug Jones' policy positions hoping they would be anathema to voters. 

I will not try to encapsulate this in to any one sound bite. Elections are complicated things, reading all of the signs and trying to understand how 1.3 million people will make up their minds between two choices. I read those signals incorrectly, call it cynicism or lack of on the ground knowledge or lack of imagination, I read it wrong. I believed that Democrats did not have the ground game, voters would regress against the race being nationalized. I thought there was no way all of the factors could fall in to place. I probably underestimated the power of the moment we are in. 

The sharp reactions to the revelations of sexual misconduct (a euphemism we cannot seem to escape) make it clear we are in a sea change in this country. It is not just that powerful men are losing their jobs, it is that a permission structure is being created for sexual misconduct, sexual assault, and rape to be discussed in a public way. It empowers people to stand up and speak out. It is creating a world where consequences are real enough to change behavior. No longer do powerful people feel they are immune from those consequences. 

The Weinstein moment is not the only factor, there is clearly a shift in the electorate because of the approval rating of President Trump. While he was not necessarily the main focus of the campaign, it is hard to escape his influence anyone in this country. This could not be a referendum on Trump, but it shows the temperature of the country.

There will be far more expansive opportunities to dissect this vote. Tonight it would appear I need to visit Alabama, and do more research on polling. 

Pre-Knee Jerk Reactions to the Alabama Senate Special Election

All day I have been reviewing the polls and the pundits on the Alabama Senate Special Election. I have looked at them with a primarily analytical lens, which kept back sliding towards strategy and wishful thinking.

The hard truths here are that Alabama is a place where the Republican Party can put up Putin or Ba'ath party type numbers on the Democrats. That’s not an indictment of Alabama on principle, the numbers in a place like San Francisco aren't exactly nail biters. For Reference the last time Nancy Pelosi (D - CA) received less than 80% of the vote in a general election it was 1990 and 77.2% would not have been thought to be squeaking by either. 

Doug Jones had a harder road to the election than the average Democrat. He was trying to reach a population that was not necessarily receptive to his message. There are many Democratic constituencies in the state, though. If those places turn out in fine form, and the Republicans stay home or vote for Nick Saban, then the race will be close. It is impossible to tell ahead of time how close this race will be. While some may dismiss polling altogether, the adept minds in the polling industry have been noting that, the polling is strongly showing there isn't a way to know. 

Polling, really all data analysis, is riddled with something called "noise." Variables that can create a problem in understanding what the numbers are actually trying to tell you. That would be referred to as the "signal." If the signal cannot be found in the numbers then the experts would agree with the casual observer that they are junk.

For a poll to be accurate, and make sense, the numbers need to be scaled properly. This prevents less populated areas or groups which are known to vote a certain way from over loading the averages. Ideally a poll consists of a demographic that matches the electoral demographic on a 1:1 ratio. This is almost never possible. To compensate, the responses of each person will be weighted to accurately reflect demographics, location, race, party ID, likely voter screen, ect. The polls have broken along methodology lines and along turnout model lines. 

Those who have had live interviews have had Jones ahead, triggering a shy voter effect conversation. Those that have polled cell phones have been kinder to the Democrat as well, signaling a possibly hidden youth vote. One poll was released with three different turn out models to signify just how little people currently understand the electorate in Alabama. 

And how could they? Alabama special elections are very rare, so there are not an abundance of guides on which to form a competent model.

Elections there are, also, usually not close. One of the closest was in 2012 when Roy Moore ran for Chief Justice and won by 4 points. His opponent, Robert S. Vance, got so close based on big turn out, and somehow out performed Barrack Obama by 10 points.

So tonight Democrats will probably watch a candidate that they have hyped lose. It will be a replay of Georgia 6th and Montana at large. People should remember that this wasn't supposed to be close. The main takeaway from this should be that the Republican Party decided to back a child molester, and threatened to change the dynamic of national politics. Each race has been an indicator of positive things for the Democratic Party, but they will not all be as much fun as the Virginia Statewide elections. The pendulum is swinging, even in Alabama. It just has further to travel. Of course I could say these glum words and then be proven wrong in a half hour. That’s been known to happen as well. 

Knee Jerk Reaction: Senate Tax Bill

This is actually a next morning 1 Turkish coffee in the bag reaction. Earlier this morning the Senate passed their version of the Tax bill at 1:50 AM ET. I had held out hope that maybe I would stay up and see another dramatic moment like Senator John McCain (R-AZ) live up to his principles and kill a major piece of legislation that was generated in a back room and would hurt real people. 

RT if you think we shouldn't re-write America's tax code in the middle of the night with...this. pic.twitter.com/iKuwh6ny4L

— Senator Chris Coons (@ChrisCoons) December 2, 2017

Despite the lack of regular order, Senator McCain was a reliable yes vote since Thursday. 

UPDATE: Republicans rejected our motion to adjourn until Monday so senators could read the bill they just introduced.

RT If you think senators should have time to read a bill that affects every single American.

— Sen Dianne Feinstein (@SenFeinstein) December 2, 2017

Marco Rubio (R-FL) for a long time was a no vote, or if your whip count score card was honest he was a "wants something." What he wanted was an expanded Child Tax Credit. He didn't get it, but he did manage to pass something that allows people to deduct the price of private K-12 education. Not exactly a hero of the worker type move. 

So many deficit hawks had their chance to prove their loyalty to their brand and vote against a bill that will add at least 1 Trillion dollars ($1,000,000,000,000.00) to the national deficit. Instead they invited doubt about whether or not they understood how deficits worked, or when it was appropriate to do deficit spending, like during a recession. Most importantly they sowed doubt that what they really disliked was that a black man added to the deficit, all but one were not black, so they were allowed to add as much to the deficit as they wanted. 

The only Republican that held true to their talking point was Senator Bob Corker (R-TN), he was the sole defector from the Republican side of the aisle leaving the vote 51-49. This is of course a simple virtue signaling move and not a genuine vote. Senator Corker holds a seat on a key committee, and during the markup process could have slowed the bill and demanded a hearing. He would have had the support of all of the Democrats and therefore it would have stalled out in the Budget Committee. It was known then that the bill would balloon the deficit, so if he was serious in his opposition he would have voiced it then. Instead he allowed the bill to be reported out where he knew his no vote would not matter. 

It was disappointing to see so many we had hoped to win over vote with the Majority. Those who could have fought back against the repeal of a key Obamacare provision (Murkoski, Collins, McCain), those who have been so outspoken about the need for regular order(McCain, McConnell(look back to his 2010 statements)), and those who were still causing havoc over the deficit up until yesterday (Johnson, Flake). Instead they chose to please their donors.

“My donors are basically saying: ‘Get it done or don’t ever call me again’” -Republican Rep. Chris Collins

“Donors are furious” -Republican Sen. Cory Gardner

"The financial contributions will stop" -Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham

No, #GOPTaxScam *won't* help the middle class.

— Nancy Pelosi (@TeamPelosi) December 1, 2017

It was an altogether major disappointment, the bill will now go to a conference committee where it will be reworked, again behind closed doors. The final bill will be brought before the House and Senate which will most likely approve of it, also lacking most procedural hurdles it could happen quite quickly. So it is most likely that this will be ready for President Trump's signature in less than two weeks.

Knee Jerk Reaction: Gen. Michael Flynn

We are past the drip drip phase of the Russia investigation. With the charge against a member of the administration we have reached a turning point as significant as the appointment of the special counsel. Today General Michael Flynn has been charged, and is expected to plead guilty, to one count of lying to the FBI. You know Flynn, this guy:

Now that the former National Security Advisor has been offered a deal, we can expect other names in the administration, past and present, to be implicated. Special Counsel Robert Mueller is not known for being light on people he sees as criminals, and to offer Flynn a plea deal he would have had to been willing to give up quite a bit of information on others further up the food chain. Being that he was a direct report to the President of the United States, the top of the food chain does not appear to be far away. 

To be both clear and fair, to say this is evidence of Trump committing a crime is far overreaching and irresponsible tea leaf reading. It is an indication that such things may have been happening though. Most federal prosecutors will not give a simple single charge to a cooperating witness when there is the wealth of evidence against Flynn out in the public realm. He was colluding with foreign governments to engage in extraordinary rendition with US residents. He was lying not only to the FBI but misrepresenting himself within the national security apparatus, that included the Vice President. 

While everything remains in the speculative realm it is hard to say who is right and who is in hysterics. But it is clear that the second round of indicitments from the Special Counsel's office is the investigation is proceeding forward. It has reached from the campaign, in to the administration. It has gone from advisors, to more concrete officials.

Even the Manafort indictment, though he held a prominent title, was more a way of leaning on him than showing wrongdoing of the campaign or administration. This is a new phase in the investigation. It is unclear how long it will last, or where it will end up. What is clear is that Robert Mueller feels empowered to act, is doing so, and it is starting to amount to actual jail time for actual people. 

That's it for now, back to this Tax bill. Which is evidently awful, and getting worse. 

Thoughts, Prayers, and Action for Las Vegas

Details are still emerging out of the Las Vegas tragedy. I can't say for certain who did what, or whether it was a lone wolf as first reported or part of some larger terror scheme(Update: apparently not). There is a lot that is unknown and still coming to light, but there are certain knowables in this situation.

Here is what we do know:

-What I do know is that people were shot while living their lives, in a place where they should not have feared gun violence. 

-People were killed with a weapon that was designed to kill people. The video released so far makes it clear that it was something more sophisticated than a hunting rifle. 

-This needless loss of life, fifty people reported so far, will be explained away by some in an effort to make us feel helpless. We are not; this is the only country this happens on a routine basis. 

-There are victims we cannot even fathom. Fifty people who were loved did not see the sun rise today. Their relations will mourn them. Four hundred are reported injured. The interruption to their lives is outstanding, what amount of council ling will victims present and distant need to even begin to make them whole again. 

We should offer our thoughts and prayers now. 

My thoughts are for those who were there, those who loved someone who was there, those who will fear going out in public or seeing a concert here in America, where we should be free from that kind of fear. 

My thoughts go to the needless pain so many people are in right now. The lack of justice they are experiencing because this person was allowed to have this kind of weapon. Up to ten or more my some reports.

My prayers are that things like the lifting of the suppressor ban the NRA is currently weaving through congress will be defeated. People were alerted to the presence of the danger because the weapon could be heard by the victims, if we are going to have these deadly instruments at least reduce their ability to slaughter us unknowingly. 

My prayers are that we are able to wake up as a country that this kind of violence is not just a fact of life. That we would be safer without the ability to kill others in this way, and that those working to put an end to this kind of destruction can succeed. 

I don't know if my pleas will be heard, but the last thing I do know is that there is no better way to honor those who have been killed, wounded, or affected is to take action.

            If anyone tells you it’s too soon, or it just isn’t the right time, or guns aren’t the real problem. Tell them the truth, they are stalling for time, they are never going to want to talk about it, and if they won’t address even part of the problem then they are the problem.

Edit: This post is in reference to an earlier piece found here, explaining the proper way to direct thoughts and prayers in the wake of tragedy, particularly gun violence.

How My Generation Comes of Age Politically

            In 2008 I was a senior in college, by the time the election rolled around I was a first year law student. Late in November, as a board member of the Democratic Law Caucus, in conjunction with the RLC, I helped host an election post mortem. We had a few professors and students sit on a panel and answer questions posed by students and even a couple of professors.

            I recall the good natured participation of one of only 2 Republican professors at the school. He affably tried to explain where his side’s message got lost, and why it just didn’t come together for them. He accepted the notion being proposed by nearly everyone else in the room that they lost to a movement. The many liberals in the room, perhaps all that were at the school, were proud that it was a movement, something that would reign for many years of our adult lives.

            One woman, a fellow 1L, chose to be the fly in the ointment and pointed out this was merely one election. What proof did any of us have – smug panelists and smug questioners alike – that this was a sustained movement? Obama could, in four years, become a one term president and it could all be over, what then?

            Stepping up to this challenge I responded: the people who were trained during this campaign to organize and energize their communities would be an enduring legacy that would keep the movement going. It would be these people who were stirred to action at a young age who would carry the political hopes of the new left. Obama did so well with young and minority voters, particularly those voting for the first time. Bringing people in to the process had expanded the electorate and shifted it. She was not impressed.

            This was a moment in time, not something that could be counted on. Too many people were already acting like the work was all done because of the results. People thought they had solved racism, and were on their way to solving corporate greed. The proclaimed successes were far beyond the ones that could be borne out by evidence.

            Nine years later, looking back on that confrontation it is interesting to see how both of our predictions played out. She was absolutely right, Democrats receded in the number of seats they held in congress and they fell short of many of their goals for the Obama era. This culminated in the reaction that became Trumpism. This woman, now an attorney, saw how paper thin the revolution was from the outset. Not because she wished it to fail, but because it was too easy for those in the moment to be blinded by optimism. She wanted to see more proof of sustainability.

            Now in the first year of the Trump administration, I might be able to carve out a small island to believe that I brought a valid point. The reaction to Trump has allowed this generation to fully come of age politically. Organizations like Indivisible, Sleeping Giants, Our Revolution, Brand New Congress, Run For Something, Together We Will, and more are staffed, driven, and supported by alums of Obama for America and its devoted fans. Those who trained to change the world for the original OFA ran smack in to reality, but are finding their second wind. They are returning to public life, because they know they need to, they see that the work is unfinished but not impossible.

            Defeating the Republican health care bill took activism, organizing, and persistence. It may still take more, but citizens are calling their congressional representatives in record numbers. The energy to be involved in politics feels as high as ever. It might not be inspired by Barrack Obama, but his training has certainly led to so many being ready.

            The events in Charlottesville do nothing to dampen my spirit, or my belief that we are growing. The tragedy that is the loss of Heather Heyer, has clearly galvanized those who are willing to fight for equal rights. Defenders of fair societies, of all stripes, were out in the streets and have been active in calling out how the president has failed in denouncing white supremacists and neo-Nazis.

            Just one week later 40,000 protesters came out in Boston to counter protest a hate speech rally euphemistically referred to as a free speech demonstration. The danger of apathy has been seen and is being combated. People of good intentions are banding together to ensure they are heard. It is not dependent on one personality or organization, but of hundreds developed organically and reaching out towards one another to form a logistical chain that brings about the change we were promised.

            If it were not for the highs of optimism from the 2008 election, the let downs experienced leading to the election of 2016, and the earth shattering wakeup call of that election this generation might not be as politically active as previous ones. We have been admonished to never skip mid-terms again, not to sort ourselves in to tiny blue districts. None of it really seemed like it would take, not until we were forced to remind ourselves and each other of it every day. Now we are beset by norm challenging news with disturbing regularity. It was the fall from our high that has allowed us to come of age.