Friday, February 3, 2017

Golden Arches Theory, An Update

                The idea popularized by Thomas Friedman that no two countries that both had a McDonalds would engage in a war. While this theory has been lightly debunked it shed light on how economic ties strengthen diplomacy. The concept of two places realizing they are not so different and don’t belong in conflict because they both love Big Mac’s? It is comforting, particularly to the American pallet.
                There is a dark side to the theory as well. That corporate interests are so strong and have such pull that they will do anything they can to avoid the possible damage to their bottom line that they force otherwise ready nations to avoid war. While that aim is noble, what ignoble aims might they also be capable of?
                The theory needs an update though. The Executive Order from the Trump administration might help light the way. Seven majority Muslim countries are banned for 3 months from immigrating to the US. This may not be war, but an inability to pass between two states is a clear breakdown of diplomatic relations. Could it be that the lack of ties to a Trump Organization property is the new key to international peace?
                In the weeks after his election Mr. Trump showed a very favorable attitude towards Taiwan, and a certain disdain for the One China policy. Could it be because he was a complete neophyte on the international stage? Or was he trying to reward a Taiwan for the positive talks that will likely lead to a new Trump International Hotel?
                Mr. Trump has leveled a great deal of criticism at Europe as well. Typically side stepping the places where he has golf courses or hotels, for example identifying Scotland as a place where the people did the right thing by voting for Brexit(while the referendum passed in the UK, Scotland overwhelmingly voted against).

                So maybe its time to convince countries that don’t want to get bombed by the US, its time to open a Trump property. No word on whether Kim Jong Un is a golfer, but let’s hope for those of us that don’t want to have a nuclear attack he can get in to it.

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